[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Ferrochrome Imports Continue to Decline, Awaiting Steel Tender Pricing Settlement

On September 22, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,450-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

At the beginning of the week, the ferrochrome market operated steadily, with a relatively quiet atmosphere for inquiries and transactions. Supported by high planned production and strong demand from downstream stainless steel, the ferrochrome market maintained confidence in a price increase for the October steel mill tender, with the mainstream view expecting the tender price to rise by another 200-300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), pending the actual price announcement. In addition, as the National Day holiday approaches, pre-holiday stocking demand is gradually emerging, with frequent inquiries and purchase operations recently. According to customs statistics, China's total imports of high-carbon ferrochrome in August 2025 were 159,100 mt, down 29.9% MoM and 43.4% YoY; including 60,900 mt from South Africa (down 43.9% MoM, 56.4% YoY) and 76,800 mt from Kazakhstan (down 2.6% MoM, 17.8% YoY). With a significant reduction in imported ferrochrome, domestic producers, stimulated by good profits, showed high production enthusiasm, and ferrochrome production continued to rise, resulting in an overall supply-demand tight balance. The ferrochrome market is expected to remain strong and stable in the short term, awaiting guidance from the new round of steel mill tender prices.

Raw material side, on September 22, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was 58-59 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 59-62 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish lumpy chrome ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate was 66-67 yuan/mtu, flat MoM from the previous trading day; futures side, 40-42% South African fines were offered at 280-284 $/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was offered at 345-355 $/mt, up 2.5 $/mt MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, the chrome ore market operated steadily, with most participants awaiting the new round of steel mill tender prices downstream, leading to cautious inquiries and purchases, and generally moderate market activity. On the spot side, ferrochrome producers mainly consumed their existing inventory, and with previously low-priced chrome ore arriving at ports, restocking was completed to some extent, resulting in limited demand for spot chrome ore. However, considering the pending release of pre-holiday stocking demand and the strong performance of the ferrochrome market, which has boosted confidence in the chrome ore market, traders are mostly optimistic about the future market outlook. South African powder ore prices remained firm recently due to concentrated supply and tight availability; demand for Zimbabwean powder ore weakened, with poor sales. In the futures market, overseas miners showed a strong willingness to sell, and the upward adjustment in futures offers narrowed, with insufficient momentum for further increases. However, considering that ferrochrome production schedules remain at high levels, providing rigid demand support for chrome ore, it is expected that chrome ore prices will operate steadily in the short term.